Orange & Black Book Report CY2023

Orange & Black Book Report CY2023

Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs

The following is the annual Orange and Black Book report for Candy Year 2023 (CY2023) ending October 31, 2023. The weather in the Middle Tennessee reporting region was cold (low 40s) with partly starry skies and a waning gibbous moon. As speculated last year, the rise in the Trunk-or-Treat phenomenon has all but put an end to Halloween trick-or-treating in this region. T-o-Ters were down to an all-time low, which forced local distribution centers into chasing down local teenagers and stuffing candy in their hands, as well as increased efforts in candy quality control testing.

The Middle Tennessee station reports 15 T-o-Ters with a median age of 9 +/- 2.1 years, with only a single entry-level T-o-Ter. This leading indicator casts pessimism on future years, with a low number of T-or-Ters to fill the vacancies caused by the aging young teen cohort.

 T-o-Ters were met with an ample supply of over-priced (see economic indicators) “Fun Size” candy including Three Musketeers, Snickers, Skittles, and Starburst. Carnauba-wax products were again under-represented, with neither Haribo Gold Bears nor Gummy Worms being offered at any of the distribution centers. The Tennessee distribution center did experiment in the off season with chocolate refining as well as gummy-bear production. Both are deemed to be economically not feasible and of too high quality to be passed out, based on the lack of effort put in by the T-o-Ters.

The local area candy market was set up by some of the neighborhood, but this served to only confuse the T-o-Ters because not all neighbors participated in the market this year.

So few discernable costumes were displayed this year that it was below the scale for measurement. Exercise sweats and LED or glow stick lights are now the most imaginative costumes warn. This agent would have been delighted to have seen a single princess, power ranger, or graven image in the bunch, but sadly there were none.

By 7:45 CDT there were no signs of life.

The outlook for the longevity of this holiday is dim, at least as it was celebrated in the 1950’s through 1980’s. Most houses no longer distribute candy. The T-oTers do not walk the neighborhood but rather are driven, and the whole point of costumes seems to be lost. Our statisticians are beyond depressed at the turn it has taken.

Get off our Dept. CNF lawn.

Orange & Black Book Report CY2022

Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs

The following is the annual Orange and Black Book report for Candy Year 2022 (CY2022) ending October 31, 2022. The weather in the Middle Tennessee reporting region was chilly (mid 50s) with light rain. These factors, coupled with the holiday falling on a Monday, local rise in popularity of the Trunk-or-Treat phenomenon, poor economy including increased candy and costume prices, and post-pandemic introversion combined to affect the overall demand and supply of candy.

The Middle Tennessee station reports 30 T-o-Ters with a median age of 10 +/- 3.5 years, with fewer entry-level T-o-Ters than usual. Although the completion of an additional seven homes since CY2021 gave leading indicator of an increased demand, forecasters overestimated this demand failing to account for team sporting events and extra-neighborhood socialization.

The bottom line was a seasonally adjusted 30 T-o-Ters who were met with an ample supply of Kit-Kat, Reese cups, Hershey Bars with Almonds, Snickers, and assorted chocolate novelties. Carnauba-wax products were under-represented, with neither Haribo Gold Bears nor Gummy Worms being offered at any of the distribution centers.

In an effort to bring the suppliers in more convenient proximity to the consumers, many of the distributors assembled in a makeshift candy market at the center of the neighborhood. While developmental psychologists caution against this activity as it removes the requirement for the consumers to travel door-to-door, the distributors prefer this arrangement as it promotes social banter, note-comparison regarding home-builder deficiencies, and ability to provide value-added services such as music and log fires.

Costume imagination set a new low in the years since these statistics have been tabulated. The mode was toward domesticated canines (dalmations) and felines, with municipal services (police, fire) remaining a strong sector. Glowing graven-image masks rallied this year, with fewer princesses and power rangers.

It was lights-out at 8:00 PM CDT, in time to see most of the Monday Night Football game.

Orange and Black Book Report CY2021

Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs

The following is the annual Orange and Black Book report from the Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs (DCNF) for Candy Year ending October 31. 2021 (CY2021). The reporting agency has moved to its new offices in the Southern Region, located in suburban Nashville, TN.

Weather was clear but cool at prime trick-or-treat (TOT) time of 6:00 pm CDT. Confounding factors for CY2021 include construction vehicles and debris, lingering COVID-19 social and economic disturbances, and school night concerns. Additionally, local neighbors agreed to distribute from a communal area rather than requiring individual doorbell ringing.

Treats were comprised of of full size Hershey, Kit Kat, Reeses Cups, and non-chocolate choice of Haribo Gold Bears. One distributer was not equally displaying candy as to obscure the Haribo, slightly skewing desirability values. TOT were also offered choices from four additional neighbors at the same stop, increasing both choice and availability.

TOT participants were generally younger (average 6 years +/- 5 years) and numbered about 20 in total, arriving in four large groups escorted by non-participating adults. Costumes included, but were not limited to, princesses, military costumes, 80s exercise costumes, animee, and graven images.

Distribution personnel kept themselves comfortable with hot toddies and propane firepit.

Orange & Black Book Report CY2020

Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs

The following is the annual Orange and Black Book reporting for candy year ending October 31, 2020 (CY2020), as compiled by the department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs (DCNF).

Halloween fell on a Saturday this year, and had complicating factors of a full moon and an extra hour sleep due to the concurrence of the seasonal end of Daylight Savings Time. (See report from the department of Daylighting and Moonlighting for just how much daylight was saved in 2020.) Confounding factors for this year’s candy supply chain included a one-time pandemic (COVID-19, see abstracts). This factor also obfuscated what can legally be considered a “Halloween Mask” versus a “Personal Protection Mask”, however it is the feeling of the board of directors that any mask will be considered a Halloween mask for the purposes of costume counting, though this exception was only valid for the twelve hours before and the twelve hours after median trick-or-treating (T-oT) time of 6:00 PM.

For the Eastern district of Flemington, 59 T-oT participants received treats. 57 of these were of the chocolate/nougat/nut variety, with choices being spread evenly between full size Hershey Bars (HB), HB with almonds, Reese Peanut butter Cups (RPC), and Twix. 2 To-T received the alternative of Halloween-themed pencils.

Unprecedented due to confounding situations noted above, the eastern distribution center was depleted of candy by about 7:15 PM. Therefore the numbers would have been undoubtedly higher. The candy distribution personnel were forced to extinguish all external lighting of the dwelling as well as main floor lighting and retreat to upstairs rooms. DCNF expects there to be retaliation for this action including, but not limited to, eggs and other projectile launching at the dwelling. We do predict a lack of toilet-papering (TP) as TP has become a highly sought after commodity in CY2020.

The following is the annual Orange & Black book report for Candy Year 2019 as reported by the Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs.

For CY2019, a seasonally-adjusted 44 trick-or-treaters arrived on location at the Flemington reporting station, representing an increase of 7.3% over CY2018. These results surprised forecasters who predicted a low turnout due to high winds and predicted rain. However, unrealized precipitation and favorable temperatures, combined with recent real estate transactions in the area which increased the count of eligible T-o-T candidates. The T-o-Ts presented with an estimated a median age of 8 ± 3.3 years, significantly lower than CY 2018. Two factors may account for this difference, the aforementioned real estate boom and the recent relocation of Alex Mannix from the neighborhood. Costume effort was high, with the most popular costume being S.W.A.T. members for boys, princesses for girls, with a spread between Elsa, Belle, Cinderella, and Rapunzel.

6.8% of children chose candy-alternate treats, maintaining a steady rate over the past 3 years. Forecasters predict moderate growth of T-o-T over the next two seasons.

The above is believed to be accurate. However readers should not consider this advice of future candy consumption, nor do the authors make any guarantees regarding economic impact these numbers may cause.

Orange & Black Book Report CY2019

Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs

The following is the annual Orange & Black book report for Candy Year 2019 as reported by the Department of Caramel, Nougat, and Fireballs.

For CY2019, a seasonally-adjusted 44 trick-or-treaters arrived on location at the Flemington reporting station, representing an increase of 7.3% over CY2018. These results surprised forecasters who predicted a low turnout due to high winds and predicted rain. However, unrealized precipitation and favorable temperatures, combined with recent real estate transactions in the area which increased the count of eligible T-o-T candidates. The T-o-Ts presented with an estimated a median age of 8 ± 3.3 years, significantly lower than CY 2018. Two factors may account for this difference, the aforementioned real estate boom and the recent relocation of Alex Mannix from the neighborhood. Costume effort was high, with the most popular costume being S.W.A.T. members for boys, princesses for girls, with a spread between Elsa, Belle, Cinderella, and Rapunzel.

6.8% of children chose candy-alternate treats, maintaining a steady rate over the past 3 years. Forecasters predict moderate growth of T-o-T over the next two seasons.

The above is believed to be accurate. However readers should not consider this advice of future candy consumption, nor do the authors make any guarantees regarding economic impact these numbers may cause.

Self-correcting Inefficiency

Here is a story so bizarre that it boggles the mind. I don’t know whether to file it under “True but improbable”, “Self-correcting Inefficiency”, or a category not yet invented, but I will leave it to the reader to place it in the proper file.

The Flemington, NJ 08822 post office services 30,354 patrons according to unitedstateszipcodes.org, in an area that covers 63.71 square miles. These facts will become relevant later in the story.

We are residents of 08822, and are planning a trip to Wales in the near future. My wife Florence made travel arrangements with a tour company in the United Kingdom, and as part of the plans the company sent two packages of information in large, white, padded envelopes with our address clearly imprinted and the indicators “1 of 2” and “2 of 2” written in black Sharpie on the outside. The packages cost £19.60 and £13.25 to ship (about $42.00 US) and left UK on May 11, 2017.

About a week later, package “1 of 2” arrived at our home on Meadowrun Way, delivered by our “new” postal delivery lady. I say “new”, though she has been delivering to our home for at least five years. I also don’t refer to her by name, not because I am protecting her identity, but because we don’t know her name; she avoids any contact with the people she services and so we have never learned her name. Her predecessor, Mark, was the model of efficiency. He had our route for the first sixteen years we lived in 08822. He was friendly, helpful, and rarely made any delivery errors. He would make a single pass through our 72-home neighborhood each day, efficiently passing each home on the right side of the truck one time only, inserting the mail fully and closing the door of each box all the way. If the mail was too big to fit in the box, he’d get out of the truck and bring it to the door. Each parcel was precious cargo to him, and each patron was a postal customer who had great respect and love for him.

For simplicity-sake, let’s call the “new” mail carrier “Happy” since her method of delivering mail can only be described as haphazard. It takes her several hours each day to make the deliveries in our neighborhood. She is frequently seen turning around in driveways halfway down a block to deliver mail to the other side of the street, only to have to do so again to finish the second half of the block. Happy drives in reverse at high speeds to the previous box sometimes. You would expect it is to correct an error she made delivering mail, but the laws of chance seem to go against this notion since at the end of each day, when neighbors go out to retrieve their mail, there is a rehearsed square-dance of neighbors do-si-do’ing down the street as they re-deliver all of the incorrect mail that they have received, and hoping that the other neighbors will bow-to-their-partner to redistribute the mail they received by mistake. Mail frequently does not show up, likely because the person who received it felt it was sufficiently unimportant as to require them to re-deliver it, or because it has been lost in the bottom of the mail truck forever.

Such was the case with our package “2 of 2” from the UK. For a week it did not appear. So my wife contacted the tour company who indicated that the two packages had indeed left their hands at the same time, and asking her to wait another week to see if it had been misrouted.

The story shifts gears a moment here, as I mention that we have been talking about our upcoming trip for several weeks to everyone with which we chance to have a conversation. The topic came up with our Deacon’s wife who, like most Deacons’ wives, make it their business to know everything about everyone. They use this skill not in a creepy way, but in a very useful and cataloging way that can be instrumental in making many connections between people. Our Deacon’s wife mentioned that there is a couple in our Parish who used to live in Wales, and that they may have some good travel advice. Rick and Jeanmarie are the Parishioners’ names, and we know them as good acquaintances. They were a wealth of good information, and before Mass last Sunday Jeanmarie said to us that she’d put together some lists of things to do, travel books, and some of their “must-see” places for our visit.

Back at home another week went by, and our travel packet had not shown up from the tour company. So Florence again contacted them to let them know. They did not want to mail another packet out, owing to the high postal cost and expecting that it might not arrive in time. But they agreed to have a packet delivered to our first hotel in Wales so that we could take advantage of the information while on our trip.

Sunday came again, and at church we saw Jeanmarie walking towards us with a large bag in one hand which included all of the aforementioned travel information for Wales. In her other hand was a large, dirty-brown envelope which said “2 of 2” at the bottom of it. The envelope, which was indeed the one from the travel company and correctly had our name and address on it, was evidently sliding around the bottom of the mail truck for two weeks before being delivered to Jeanmarie’s home the previous day. She lives on Meadow Lark Ct., which is in our zip code but is more than two miles from where we live, and her box number is different from ours. Our last names both begin with “D”, but the similarity ends there. When we compared notes on postal carriers, Jeanmarie indicated that theirs is a “ditsy” and unfriendly woman. We were fairly sure she was describing Happy.

So I pose the question: How did it happen that a package makes it a quarter the way around the world and arrives in our post office with no trouble in a period of one week. But the same package is then kicked around a mail truck for two weeks, is delivered to one of 30,000 possible recipients, and the recipient is not the correct recipient, but is the one other person in the zip code that would have similar business with the intended recipient?

The chances seem so astronomical that I feel like I am missing a simple and obvious explanation, and yet that explanation eludes me. I will entertain alternate explanations.

Craigslist Ad: Beauty is Just a Light Switch Away

[I placed this ad on Craigslist a couple of years ago to sell my old lawn tractor.  I got full price in about 2 days…]

They say that “Beauty is just a light switch away.” I can say that this is truly the case with this baby. Is she arm candy? No, not in 2013. But she turned some heads in her day when I bought her from Pennington Sales and Service, the former authorized dealer of John Deere products to Central New Jersey. The neighbors up to that point all had crappy Sears tractors until “that damned upstart kid moved into the neighborhood.” They all saw my John Deere LT 155 and immediately fell in love with it. The two nearest neighbors got themselves one within a year or two they were so impressed.

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What made her so great? Well, to begin with, she sported that iconic green and yellow paint that people have come to associate with John Deere. But also the even cut that she produced, adeptly mulching the clippings into the grass so that they virtually disappeared into the lawn. They liked the relative quiet (at that time one of the quietest tractors available). And I won’t lie, they liked the Shea Stadium pattern the lawn took on when I was finished mowing. (They all used to do the less appealing spiral cut; they have all followed suit with the string-theory cut like I do, changing direction by 45-degrees every week).

Flash forward 15 years. The lawn still looks like an MLB infield, in no small way because of the Freedom 42″ mulching deck. The old girl can still get around, making short work of my 0.94 acre lot in an hour and 5 minutes. But the old girl, she is showing her age looks-wise. The Kohler 15 HP engine still cold starts in less than two seconds, powered by the brand new Auto Zone battery she received this spring. But, she now has a Frankenstein scar. This was the Achilles heel of these babies — the chassis was made out of plastic which eventually develops stress cracks. Virtually any of these that are for sale have the same problem to a greater or lesser degree. But, fueled by my love for “Zip-ties”, I took care of the problem. She may have a big scar and a broken bumper, but it is good for telling stories like “the day I was mowing the lawn and a grizzly appeared on my lawn”.

So why am I selling her, you ask? Well, you see, I set the bar too high. I have a beautiful wife, so the neighbors expect me to have a beautiful tractor, too. I see the pointing. I hear the snickers. They say, “Sure, he can be married to her, but can he have a beautiful tractor?” I’ll admit it right here. I caved to the peer pressure. I got a new tractor. BUT YOU ARE STRONGER THAN ME! You don’t need the best looking tractor, just the best looking lawn.

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She comes as-is and includes the original owner’s manual, complete with my greasy fingerprints. (You may be called into court if I ever commit a crime, but I’m a pretty honest guy so the likelihood is slim.) I also have an extra set of John Deere Freedom 42″ blades I’ll throw in (you should put a fresh set of sharpened blades on her every couple of months for best results.) I also have the broken front bumper, if you care to have it.

So, what do you say? Are you game? I’ll even do like Tom Sawyer and let you mow a little bit of my lawn to try it out. I know it takes a lot of skill, but I’m willing to let you mow some lawn, sight unseen, so that you can test out the old girl. Email me and make the appointment that will change your life, or at least your lawn.